Strong Opinions not held so loosely
I keep an X list, five OG Discords, and a dozen Telegram groups, staying engaged across all of them to catch alpha—but more often than not, what I actually gather is conviction. The longer I linger in those conversations, the more the takes begin to feel “earned,” as if consensus and repetition were evidence. Exclusivity amplifies that effect, making the claims feel truer simply because fewer people have access, and so the room ends up testing the story before price ever does.
In the end i end up building a strong “opinion” .
I tell myself the opinion is loose. Then the room nods, the chart blips green, and looseness snaps to attachment. I start filtering: the first move up feels like evidence, anything that contradicts it feels irrelevant. I’m not declaring conviction, but I’m acting like I have it.
When looseness snaps to attachment, the bill shows up in specific ways:
Confirmation creep: invalidation lines drift, stops widen, and disconfirming signals get relabeled as noise.
Late exits: you wait for one more catalyst, drawdowns compound, liquidity thins, and slippage taxes the exit.
Missed rotations: capital stuck in idea A can’t chase strength in idea B, so you underperform beta and miss the next leg.
Optionality loss: trapped capital can’t press winners when the regime flips, diluting edge across stale positions.
Process decay: journaling becomes backfill, base rates get ignored, and your thesis becomes an identity you defend.
PnL damage: Sharpe compresses, max drawdown expands, and funding/OI squeezes turn a belief into a tail-risk event.
Attachment is the default. More debate won’t fix it. You need clear rules that make you update even when you don’t want to. The aim is not weaker views; the aim is strong views that are easy to kill when the facts change.
Pick a few kill switches you will actually follow. Keep each tool distinct so there is no overlap.
Price rules (technical): set key levels and signals on the chart. Use support and resistance, trend breaks, momentum shifts, and clear divergences. If a major level breaks or momentum turns against you, reduce or exit.
Market regime rules (big picture): decide if the market is risk-on or risk-off using broad context, not chart levels. Look at breadth, volume, liquidity, macro volatility, stablecoin net inflows, and ETF or spot demand. If the regime turns risk-off, cut exposure even if your chart still looks fine.
Statistics and base rates: set numeric thresholds that do not care about the story. Track drawdown, win rate, Sharpe, time-to-proof, and how similar setups performed in the past. If the numbers fall below your line, you exit.
Derivatives and flow: watch funding, perp basis, open interest, and realized versus implied volatility. If leverage is crowded against you or flow dries up, de-risk.
On-chain usage: track whale inflows, active addresses, transaction fees, and revenue where relevant. If real usage stalls while your thesis needs growth, cut size.
Risk rules: cap position size, set stops you will respect, time-box the idea, and schedule reviews. If the timer expires without proof, you cut.
Hard guards: define a max loss per idea, a scaling plan, and time-based invalidations. For example: “If X does not happen in 30 days, reduce by 50%.”
Keep it simple and consistent. Choose the few tools you will obey under pressure. Write down your invalidations. When evidence flips, let the rules kill the view.
The point is optionality, not orthodoxy. Choose the few tools you’ll actually respect under pressure, codify your invalidations, and let them kill the view when the evidence flips.
Translating the toolkit into a bite-size, practical loop.
Suppose you have a this strong opinion: “Neo-bank adoption will lift Token N over the next month.”
Check one signal source: either your 4h chart (Supertrend + supply reclaim on rising volume) or a quant tool like pulsetrader.xyz.
If the signal is bullish, take a starter (20–30%). If it’s not, stand aside.
Set a hard invalidation: exit on a 4h close back below Supertrend or if the daily 200DMA is lost.
Quick sanity checks: funding neutral-to-positive, OI stable; if funding turns negative while OI rises or simple usage stalls twice, cut to starter or flat.
Journal the trigger and the exit—let the signal, not the story, drive the trade.
Getting alpha still matters—that’s why we sit in the rooms. Turning alpha into a winning trade happens when strong opinions travel with kill switches and a couple of extra views. Write the thesis, add one or two independent checks (a second signal, a usage metric, a peer outside your echo chamber), and pre‑commit the exits. When the evidence lines up, lean in. When it doesn’t, step aside and recycle the capital. You keep the curiosity that finds ideas and the discipline that keeps you free for the next one. That combination is how you stay in the game and stack the wins.